 fter 
                  a 200-year rise driven mainly by human activities, atmospheric 
                  levels of methane, the second most important greenhouse gas, 
                  have stopped growing, scientists are reporting. Climate 
                  experts said the stabilization of methane, though probably 
                  temporary, is important evidence that steps to curb emissions 
                  could slow global warming even as disputes persist over what 
                  to do about carbon dioxide, the dominant greenhouse gas.
fter 
                  a 200-year rise driven mainly by human activities, atmospheric 
                  levels of methane, the second most important greenhouse gas, 
                  have stopped growing, scientists are reporting. Climate 
                  experts said the stabilization of methane, though probably 
                  temporary, is important evidence that steps to curb emissions 
                  could slow global warming even as disputes persist over what 
                  to do about carbon dioxide, the dominant greenhouse gas.
                  "This is a big deal," said Dr. James A. Hansen, a climate 
                  scientist at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies who 
                  has highlighted the importance of methane as a heat-trapping 
                  gas for years.
                  It is clearer than ever that "methane presents an 
                  opportunity for a global warming success story," he said. "We 
                  could get it to stop increasing and even decrease somewhat, 
                  mostly with actions that make sense for other reasons." Such 
                  actions could include stanching leaks in pipelines or 
                  capturing gas released during mining or oil drilling.
                  The side benefits would include improved air quality, he 
                  and other experts said. Methane not only warms the atmosphere 
                  but also contributes to the formation of ozone, an ingredient 
                  of smog. 
                  Actions to cut methane emissions would also produce far 
                  quicker results than measures to curb carbon dioxide. Once 
                  released, methane, the main component in natural gas, remains 
                  in the atmosphere for only 8 to 10 years before it breaks 
                  down. Carbon dioxide, which is released every time a fossil 
                  fuel or forest is burned, can last a century and has been 
                  accumulating steadily in the air.
                  The American and Dutch researchers who measured the change 
                  in methane levels said they found evidence that human actions, 
                  while not aimed at stemming climate change, appeared to be the 
                  cause — specifically the near shutdown of oil and gas 
                  extraction after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. 
                  Old production methods released vast streams of the gas 
                  from leaking pipelines, uncapped wells and the like. Newer, 
                  less leaky methods are slowly being adopted now.
                  Some climate experts had already noted that emissions of 
                  methane were more variable, and perhaps more controllable, 
                  than those of carbon dioxide. But this is the first time that 
                  scientists have found a sustained plateau in methane 
                  concentrations, from 1999 to 2002. A global analysis has not 
                  been completed for 2003.
                  The new analysis, described in the current issue of 
                  Geophysical Research Letters, is by the Commerce Department's 
                  Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory in Boulder, 
                  Colo., and the National Institute for Space Research of the 
                  Netherlands. 
                  Dr. Hansen said it was premature to point to a particular 
                  reason for the change because methane has so many sources. 
                  About 70 percent comes from human activities — with most from 
                  fossil-fuel extraction. But methane also comes from sources as 
                  varied as the digestive tract of cattle and termites, 
                  wetlands, rice paddies and garbage dumps.
                  The scientists collected measurements of methane in the air 
                  taken at 43 monitoring stations around the world and compared 
                  them with a European database of records kept on emissions 
                  from various sources. 
                  By examining regional difference in methane concentrations, 
                  they found the plateau appeared to result mainly from a sharp 
                  drop in emissions in 1991 and 1992 in latitudes north of 50 
                  degrees — a region dominated by Russia and Canada. 
                  Other evidence, they said, pointed more precisely to 
                  Russia, including measurements taken at Canada's Alert 
                  military base — the northernmost inhabited spot on Earth — 
                  that tracked air masses drifting directly from Siberia.
                  The drop in methane levels there appears to have more than 
                  compensated for a rise in emissions from Asia, said Dr. Edward 
                  J. Dlugokencky, the lead author of the study and a scientist 
                  at the Boulder laboratory. 
                  "If we hadn't had decreases in the former Soviet Union, we 
                  wouldn't have seen methane flat for the last four years," he 
                  said. 
                  Some scientists concurred with that conclusion, but other 
                  experts on methane, though agreeing a plateau had been 
                  reached, said they were not yet convinced that the Russian 
                  downturn in emissions was the reason. 
                  "Methane is an incredibly messy problem," said Dr. Inez Y. 
                  Fung, the director of the atmospheric sciences center at the 
                  University of California at Berkeley. She said its level 
                  varies not only as sources shrink or grow, but also because it 
                  is destroyed at changing rates — depending on other 
                  substances, including other pollution, in the air. 
                  And, she added, the estimates of emissions from various 
                  sources, particularly nonindustrial ones like rice 
                  cultivation, are extremely rough. 
                  She said an untapped source of evidence that could show the 
                  link to Russian gas fields could be satellite images of the 
                  world at night. Flares on oil rigs destroy only a portion of 
                  the methane and could reveal overall activity, and leakage, in 
                  such areas, she said. 
                  The biggest question now is whether methane will resume the 
                  climb that has more than doubled its concentration since the 
                  start of the industrial revolution. 
                  Dr. Dlugokencky said that all depends on how assertively 
                  countries and companies work to stem emissions — noting that 
                  human behavior is the most uncertain factor of all.
                  Prof. Jesse H. Ausubel, the director of Program for the 
                  Human Environment at Rockefeller University in Manhattan, said 
                  that particularly now that natural gas has become a valuable 
                  commodity there are strong economic incentives to stop leaks.
                  
                  "This is better than a no regrets action," he said. "This 
                  should be a case where, with little outlay, people can 
                  actually win an economic benefit."